Signals released in recent days point to a US labor market that is more robust than expected. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3%. Furthermore, figures for March and April were revised upward by a total of 93,000 positions, bringing the 3-month average to approximately 188,000 job creations, its strongest pace since the beginning of the year.
This improvement does not rely solely on official statistics. Automatic Data Processing (ADP), which publishes a monthly estimate of US private employment based on its clients’ data, recorded 122,000 net job creations in May, its best figure since January 2025. The 3-month average also rose to its highest level since late 2024/early 2025 at 96,000 positions, confirming a turnaround after a soft H2 2025.
Internal data from the Bank of America Institute points in the same direction. The bank observed that the number of client accounts receiving a salary accelerated in May, with a 1.4% y-o-y increase on a 3-month moving average, compared to 1% in April. Interestingly, the bank indicated that the improvement appears to be primarily driven by low-income jobs.
Federal payroll tax withholdings, tracked from daily Treasury data by TaxTracking, further reinforce this diagnosis. Their growth reached 6.4% y-o-y in May, following 4% in April.
While these indicators do not all measure exactly the same thing, their common message complicates the rate-cut scenario at a time when inflation remains near 3%.
